The value of Bitcoin (BTC) is imminent in the last weekly candle for August. Around traders have faith in Bitcoin’s performance over the next two weeks could decide whether its value drops below $10,000 again or sees a prolonged uptrend. The week’s weekly candle close accords with the expiration of CME’s Bitcoin futures contracts and Deribit’s options contracts. It could hypothetically set a precedent for September, significantly if Bitcoin closes overhead or below critical levels.
In the short term, technical analysts usually consider $11,800 as the critical level for Bitcoin. A high time frame close underneath the level would raise the chances of a deeper pullback. A close above it, upholding a green scheduled candle, could cause Bitcoin to see another leg up.
Mohit Sorout, a founding partner at Bitazu Capital, held in a tweet that a rally to $11,800 would “put sellers to sleep.” Sorout denoted to the daily chart of Bitcoin with Bollinger Bands, viewing the area of interest for both sellers and buyers.
Bollinger Bands marked on Bitcoin daily chart
With just a few days left up until the monthly close, the Bitcoin futures market remains cautious. Characteristically, the number of long contract holders in the futures market outweigh short-sellers. Data from Bybt displays longs represent 53.36% of the market, which shows traders are cautious, heading into September with 3-major scenarios on the cards.
The interim bullish set-up for Bitcoin
For Bitcoin to uphold its upward momentum in the near term, traders say BTC’s Price principally needs to recover back above the $11,800 support-turned-resistance level. If that transpires, traders foresee another potential move to $12,500. Nevertheless, some other traders have faith in that the significant support trendline of Bitcoin places the next support area at around $10,900. Therefore, if BTC sojourns above the $10,900-to-$11,500 range, it would uphold its short-term bull scenario.
A cryptocurrency trader recognized as “John Wick” believes investors are not considering the higher time frames, as the weekly chart, which uses Bitcoin’s $3,600 bottom in March and $9,130 local bottom in July as basis points, shows a supportive trendline. As long as the trendline does not break powerfully in the short term, the trader hinted in a tweet that this could be an optimistic market structure.
Weekly Bitcoin chart
Cryptocurrency analyst Nunya Bizniz optional a similar scenario in a higher time frame. If the current monthly candle edifice follows previous formations, the analyst said there is a chance it marks the start of a newfound bull run. That would indicate that Bitcoin’s Price hypothetically sees a stable climb over the next six to twelve months, tweeting:
“BTC Monthly: VWAP anchored to previous cycle highs. A successful retest of the AVWAP has lead to bull markets. Does the current month satisfy the retest, and will it lead to a bull run [this] time? Note: Grey vertical line = halving.”
Nevertheless, one variable in the expectations of a 2017-like rally is that the second halving happened in mid-2016. If a similar trend were to emerge, the chances of Bitcoin sighted a proper rally are higher in late 2021, rather than during the coming winter.
BTC’s thoughtfully bearish case
In the short term, traders underway to show signs of caution following Bitcoin’s drop below $11,500. A trader known as “Mayne” held that the initial decline of Bitcoin to $11,400 is not a trend bulls want to see. Meanwhile then, Bitcoin has seen a consecutive lower high pattern, which characteristically shows a slackening thrust. Mayne tweeted:
“Price with a false break high and now stair stepping down. The last 2 up moves seem like clear bearish retests. If this is distribution, expect the selling to pick up speed soon. Bulls need to come in and regain $11.7.”
An inferior high foundation refers to when the value peaks at a lower value than the preceding high. Bitcoin’s daily candle fastened at $11,748 on August 24, while the subsequent three everyday candles all closed under $11,500, forming a lower high pattern. Bitcoin would have to break above your head $11,800 to cancel out the lower high pattern, which makes it a grave short-term level.
The slackening momentum of Bitcoin since its peak in mid-August coincides with diminishing address activity. CNBC’s Brian Kelly has used the everyday address activity on the Bitcoin blockchain as a crucial fundamental metric for around time. Subsequently, May, the address activity on the Bitcoin network has noticeably declined, as data by Santiment shows it has dropped by nearly half, illuminating that the decline in address activity is a sign of caution that network activity is seeing a slump. The company tweeted: “The -3.7% value was surely related to this metric’s -19.3% decline since its peak of 1.13M active addresses back on August 6.”
The confluence of subordinate highs on the daily chart, slowing fundamental metrics, and the consolidation of Bitcoin under $11,800 is swaying the market to become additional cautious.
As a substitute scenario, several investors believe Bitcoin could see months of low volatility previously the next significant value movement. Dan Tepiero, a co-founder of 10T Holdings, supposed that every price cycle in the past took around 800-1,100 days to complete. Bitcoin is presently less than 400-days into the cycle, which designates that BTC could range sideways for the next three to 12-months.
Bitcoin price cycles and their lengths
If the Price of Bitcoin lingers to remain stagnant, some foresee an extended altcoin season. The Bitcoin supremacy index is a concern for altcoins in the foreseeable future, as it is approaching critical technical support levels. Nevertheless, historically, altcoins have prospered during a Bitcoin consolidation phase.
Tepiero longings everyone to be patient with Bitcoin, tweeting:
“Each upcycle takes longer to play out and is less extreme as absolute dollar value gets much larger. Mayor may not be another 6-12 months before Price breaks up. It should not matter as the end price point obscenely higher. Hodlers rejoice.”
Traders endure mixed as Bitcoin enters September, which, factually, has been a slow month. In preceding years, BTC often saw an uptrend in August, trailed by consolidation until November. The tendency of BTC to stagnate through the last quarter of the year is reflected by the lack of decisiveness in the futures market.